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Weather & ENSO

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ENSOEl NiñoONI +1.8°C
RegionNext 7dPast 30dStatus
Peninsular Malaysia38 mm125 mmNormal
Sabah64 mm126 mmNormal
Sarawak73 mm76 mmNormal
Sumatra/Riau37 mm124 mmNormal
Kalimantan1 mm19 mmDry

Next 7d is forecast (MET Norway); past 30d is observed (NASA POWER, ~2-day lag). Status reflects the 7-day outlook.

Energy Desk

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Brent crude$104.61 / bbl
last session 0.00%
7 days 8.65%
15 days 18.74%
30 days 13.68%
trending upas of Sep 13, 2026
$69Brent, past 3 months$110

Crude is trending higher across both the week and the month. Firmer crude improves biodiesel blend economics, lending support to palm oil demand.

Latest news & briefs

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Sep 03, 2026

Buyer's guide

Planning Palm Cargoes: Lead Times and Shipment Basics

A practical guide to typical lead times and shipment planning for Southeast Asian palm products.

Weather & crops

El Niño Lingers as Rain Stays Normal: Palm Yield Lag, Harvest Logistics in Focus

ENSO warmth persists with ONI +1.4, yet rainfall is broadly normal across Malaysia and Indonesia; output outlook hinges on lagged yield effects and near-term logistics.

Market brief

Indonesia export burden and El Niño keep palm oil near 52-week high despite ample July sto

Bullish biodiesel economics and a wide soy-palm spread support buyers, but September seasonality and the coming MPOB print cap the rally. Our model sees five bullish factors outwei

Palm oil facts

Why Oil Palm Delivers More Oil per Hectare Than Any Other Crop

A practical look at the agronomic and harvest factors behind palm oil's unmatched land efficiency for procurement teams.

Market brief

Palm oil near MYR4,661; El Niño, B60 signals vs ample July stocks

Malaysian CPO holds around $1,153/MT as Indonesia's B60 acceleration and El Niño concerns meet higher July MPOB production and stocks.

Policy & energy watch

El Niño, B50/B60 Policy Signals Tighten Palm Oil Supply Outlook

Indonesian biodiesel mandates and El Niño output risks weigh on supply, lifting CPO price outlook.

Market brief

CPO Steady Near Highs as Indonesia Reference Price Rises, El Niño and B50 Policy Loom

Malaysian benchmark holds above $1,150/MT; September reference price up, MPOC sees support above MYR4,600 despite weaker soybean oil.

Sep 02, 2026

Products explained

Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot: What Research Establishes and What Remains Uncertain

A neutral look at the pathogen, detection limits and resistance breeding for oil palm's most costly disease.

Palm oil facts

The Malaysian pivot: how state policy turned rubber estates into oil palm in the 1960s and

A look at the policy-driven shift that reshaped Malaysian agriculture and built the modern palm oil sector.

Market data

Global output outlook: El Niño dries key zones as stocks build in Malaysia

Malaysian production and stocks rose in July, but dry Sumatra, Kalimantan and El Niño conditions cloud the supply path.

Sustainability

Understanding RSPO Premiums and the Practical Difference Between MB and SG

A practical guide for procurement managers on what certified palm oil premiums fund and how Mass Balance and Segregated supply chains differ in daily use.

Market brief

Palm Oil Consolidates Near $1,146 as El Niño and B50 Offsets Ample July Stocks

Malaysian CPO edges higher, Indonesian reference holds above $1,000, while dry weather and biodiesel policy support prices against a seasonal stock build.

Policy & energy watch

B50 Push, El Niño Dryness Tighten Indonesia Palm Oil Supply Outlook

Policy watch: Indonesia's B50 mandate collides with El Niño-driven output risks and strong export demand.

Market brief

Palm Oil Holds Near $1,155 as El Niño, B50 Costs Weigh on Outlook

CPO benchmark steadies; MPOC sees prices above MYR 4,600 in September as supply tightens and geopolitical risks persist.

Sep 01, 2026

Policy & energy watch

Malaysia CPO Export Duty: Sliding Scale, Duty-Free Floor, and East Malaysia Sales Tax

How Malaysia's progressive CPO export duty and Sabah-Sarawak sales taxes layer onto an exporter's landed cost, and what buyers should track.

Compliance

How India's Crude-Refined Duty Gap Shapes CPO vs RBD Olein Trade

Understanding the tariff structure that protects domestic refiners and steers import choices.

Weather & crops

El Niño Dry Spell Spreads Across Palm Belts; Yield Lag Looms for 2027

Dry conditions in Sarawak, Sumatra, Riau and Kalimantan point to lower fruit bunch weights ahead, while near-term output faces logistics snags.

Policy & energy watch

B50 Rollout, El Niño Tighten Palm Oil Supply Outlook

Indonesia's B50 expansion and dry weather reshape palm oil balances, pressuring compliance buyers.

Market brief

Palm Oil Steady Near $1,144 as El Niño, B50 Demand Offset Ample Stocks

Malaysian CPO benchmark holds at RM 4,613/MT with weather and biodiesel support battling stock builds and crowded positioning.

Market brief

El Niño, B50 Demand Bolster CPO; Indonesia Output Warning Adds to Bullish View

Indonesian producer group warns El Niño will crimp output; B50 biodiesel now covers 90% of Pertamina stations, reinforcing supply-tightening narrative.

Market brief

Palm Oil Holds Near $1,144 as El Niño Fears Duel Ample Malaysian Stocks

Wide soy-palm discount and biodiesel demand support nearby CPO, but July stock build and peak production cap gains; our model sees a slight net rise over seven sessions.

Buyer's guide

How to Read a Palm Oil Certificate of Analysis Before You Pay

A practical guide for procurement managers and first-time buyers to verify quality claims, spot discrepancies, and protect payment.

Market brief

Palm Oil Brief: CPO Holds Near $1,144 as El Niño Risks Offset Ample July Stocks

Malaysian CPO benchmark edges up 0.2% to $1,144/MT; MPOB July stocks rise 7.2% MoM to 1.43m tonnes, while El Niño and B50 demand keep upside risk alive.

Aug 31, 2026

Compliance

Bangladesh Edible Oil Imports: VAT, Duties, Price Controls and Ramadan Demand

How Bangladesh structures import taxes and price caps on edible oils, and what it means for traders during Ramadan.

Market brief

El Niño and a wide soy-palm spread keep CPO bid, but Malaysian stocks curb the rally

Five bullish factors outweigh four bearish in our model, yet July MPOB stocks and peak production keep the upside choppy and capped.

Weather & crops

El Niño dryness over key palm belts; lagged yield risks build into 2027

Sarawak, Sumatra/Riau and Kalimantan stay dry as ONI sits at +1.4; near-term harvest access may hold, but 6–12 month drought stress looms.

Products explained

Hydrogenated Palm Products: Understanding HPO, HPS and Powdered Fats

How hydrogenation changes palm oil and palm stearin into hard fats and free-flowing powders, and what procurement teams should check.

Market brief

Palm Oil Holds Near Highs as El Niño and B50 Offset Rising Malaysian Stocks

Malaysian benchmark CPO trades around RM4,613/MT, up 0.4%, while July MPOB stocks climb 7.2% MoM; El Niño supply risks and Indonesia's B50 mandate keep two-sided pressure.

Weather & crops

El Niño Drought Lingers Across Palm Belts; Yields Face Lagged Risk as Output Peaks

Dry conditions persist in Sarawak, Sumatra, Riau and Kalimantan, with El Niño's yield impact still unfolding even as seasonal production peaks.

Market brief

Indonesia Sets Sept CPO Reference at $1,007.51; B50, El Niño Underpin Firm Prices

New reference price supports export levy outlook, while B50 mandate and dry weather tighten supply narrative.

Aug 30, 2026

Market data

Palm Oil's Long-Run Demand Math: Population, Income and the Supply Gap

Edible oil demand growth from population and income gains implies sustained supply expansion, set against El Niño risks and current stockbuilds.

Products explained

RBD palm oil vs crude palm oil: when refinement matters and when it does not

A neutral comparison of RBD and crude palm oil across yield, cost, properties, applications, and sustainability.

Market brief

Palm Oil Price Drivers: Bullish Supply Fears Meet Bearish Stockbuild and Seasonal Drag

Malaysian CPO edges higher, but our model's balance of factors tilts lower: 4 bullish drivers face 6 bearish ones, with El Niño, B50 and the BOPO spread offset by July stockbuild,

Palm oil facts

Why Palm Oil Is Semi-Solid at Room Temperature—and How That Benefits Buyers

A practical look at palm oil's natural fat profile, melting behaviour, and why its semi-solid state works well in food and non-food uses.

Market brief

Palm Oil Balances El Niño Supply Fears Against July Stockbuild

Malaysian CPO edges to $1,143/MT; MPOB July stocks and production rise, but dry weather and B50 demand keep bias slightly positive.

Policy & energy watch

B50 rollout reshapes Indonesian palm oil demand; storage, supply in focus

Indonesia's B50 mandate advances with storage build-out, tightening supply outlook and pressuring buyers.

Market brief

Palm Oil Holds Gains as El Niño Aid, Output Warnings Support

Malaysian CPO edges up 0.4% to $1,143/MT; authorities ready smallholder help, industry warns severe El Niño could shrink output.

Weather: NOAA CPC (ENSO) & MET Norway (rainfall). Energy: EIA via FRED. News is AI-assisted analysis with sources linked — information only, not advice. Data credits.

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