Weather & Production Risk
Weather is the biggest swing factor in palm oil supply. El Niño brings drought that cuts yields with a 6–12 month lag; heavy rain floods estates and disrupts harvesting now. Here's the current state across the growing belts.
ENSO state
El Niño
Season JJA 2026
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
+1.8 °C
El Niño threshold ≥ +0.5
Yield implication
Drought risk — lagged yield downside
7-day rainfall outlook — palm belts
| Region | 7-day rain | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Peninsular Malaysia | 38 mm | Normal |
| Sabah | 64 mm | Normal |
| Sarawak | 73 mm | Normal |
| Sumatra/Riau | 37 mm | Normal |
| Kalimantan | 1 mm | Dry — yield stress |
Updated Sep 13, 2026. Forward 7-day precipitation totals per region.
ENSO / ONI: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Rainfall: MET Norway (Locationforecast), used with attribution. For information only, not a forecast of prices or trading advice. Full data credits.
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