Forecast Scorecard
How well does the POE 7-day outlook predict CPO price direction and magnitude? Scored automatically each day when actual prices become available.
Direction accuracy (7d)
Direction accuracy (14d)
Direction accuracy (30d)
Independent forecasts
Skill vs no-change
No-change MAE (30d)
Large-move accuracy
AI weight
Statistical weight
MAE (7d)
MAE (14d)
MAE (30d)
Daily breakdown
| Date | Direction hit rate | MAE ($/MT) | Forecasts scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 57% | $7.45 | 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | 71% | $8.03 | 7 |
| 2026-07-24 | 71% | $21.14 | 7 |
| 2026-07-23 | 86% | $5.66 | 7 |
| 2026-07-22 | 29% | $7.58 | 7 |
| 2026-07-21 | 29% | $6.62 | 7 |
| 2026-07-20 | 43% | $6.60 | 7 |
| 2026-07-17 | 14% | $6.22 | 7 |
| 2026-07-16 | 57% | $6.51 | 7 |
| 2026-07-15 | 14% | $7.73 | 7 |
| 2026-07-14 | 14% | $10.12 | 7 |
| 2026-07-13 | 43% | $8.75 | 7 |
| 2026-07-10 | 17% | $11.16 | 6 |
| 2026-07-09 | 20% | $10.32 | 5 |
| 2026-07-08 | 0% | $16.85 | 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | 0% | $16.44 | 3 |
| 2026-07-06 | 67% | $5.33 | 3 |
| 2026-07-03 | 100% | $4.85 | 2 |
| 2026-07-02 | 0% | $2.70 | 1 |
Accuracy is measured by comparing each forecast point against the actual Malaysia CPO close (MPOB daily in MYR, converted to USD). Direction hit = did the forecast correctly predict whether the price would move up or down from the anchor? MAE = mean absolute error in $/MT. Past accuracy does not guarantee future performance. This is an experimental model, not investment advice.
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