Palm Oil Economics

Data, statistics and AI-powered insights

Palm Oil Market Desk

Live crude palm oil benchmarks, short-term outlook, market signals and sourcing links for buyers, traders and suppliers.

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Malaysia CPO

+0.23%

MYR 4,540/MT

Aug 11, 2026

67th pctl of 52-wk range

Indonesia CPO

+0.09%

$1,009/MT

Aug 11, 2026 modeled

Levy: $128.69/MT

Global benchmark

-0.27%

$1,101/MT

Jul 2026

World Bank monthly

7-day outlook

up

Bullish

Move: +0.39%

38% dir. accuracy (30d)

Brent crude

-4.48%

$89.7/bbl

Aug 12, 2026

30d: -4.48%

Refining margin

healthy

$184/MT

Olein – CPO spread

Healthy margins

MPOB, Kemendag, World Bank, FX and POE model referencesMalaysia priceAug 11, 2026Indonesia modelAug 11, 2026MPOB monthlyJul 01, 2026BrentAug 12, 2026WeatherAug 12, 2026ForecastAug 12, 2026

Malaysia CPO trend

Full chart

One-year market line with the latest POE 7-day outlook overlaid when available.

RSI-14: 53MACD: bullishSMA 5/20: golden cross

Cross-market pulse

Open dashboards

The live forces outside the price chart that can shift palm oil supply and demand.

Demandquiet

India and China import-demand monitoring is active; no new verified headline appeared in the latest scan.

Operational insights

Near-term signals remain mixed

Mixed
Buyer contextStaggered pricing dates and a consistent landed-cost benchmark provide useful comparison context.
Supplier contextCurrent offers and transparent price, freight and policy assumptions remain important context.
Signals to monitorWeather, Policy, Exports are the main signals to monitor as conditions evolve.
Dates to watchPeak production season (Jul–Oct) — highest output, typically bearish pressure

Market interpretation only. Users should make their own commercial decisions.

SupplyMPOB dashboard

Production, stocks, exports, imports and FFB price.

EnergyBrent & palm link

Follow crude prices and biodiesel demand support.

WeatherENSO & rainfall

Monitor growing-belt rain and production risk.

PolicyBiodiesel mandates

Track blend programs and policy-led palm demand.

Trade Tools & Calculators

Live market spreads and practical calculators for palm oil trade.

FFB CalculatorSpec ValidatorTax & Levy Calculator
BOPO Spread$477/MT

$477/MT

CPO $1104 vs Soy $1581 (2026-06-01)

Wide — strongly supports palm demand

Open substitutes dashboard →
Brent Crude-4.5% 30d

$89.65/bbl

Aug 12, 2026

Softer crude reduces energy-led support for palm

Open energy desk →

Signal to shipment

Turn the market view into a sourcing decision

Move from the right palm product to a comparable landed cost and then a supplier-ready requirement without losing the market context above.

01Choose the productCPO, refined oils, fractions, specialty fats and derivatives02Model landed costCompare price, freight, duty, FX and destination costs03Request a matched offerSend product, volume, destination and delivery requirements
Up to date — Malaysia (MPOB) last updated Aug 11, 2026. Showing the latest MPOB price. Each trading day's price is published in the afternoon, Malaysia time.

Malaysian crude palm oil prices

Historical World Bank benchmark data is combined with MPOB Malaysia data, FX references and POE model projections for the current market view.

AI price outlook · experimentalgenerated Aug 12, 2026 · AI market model

↻ Updates every hour as new market data and news become available.

CPO is expected to trade with a mild upward bias over the next 7 days, supported by a recent surge in Brent crude oil boosting biodiesel economics, a wide palm-soyoil discount favoring demand switching, and emerging El Niño concerns. However, seasonal production peaks and stock build in Malaysia, along with a weak Indonesian rupiah encouraging exports, cap upside. Technicals show a short-term uptrend but momentum is weak. The market consolidates near the upper end of its recent range. Published path: +0.4% over 7 sessions.

Wed 08-12
$1,107
▲ 0.06%
Thu 08-13
$1,108
▲ 0.09%
Fri 08-14
$1,108
▲ 0.03%
Mon 08-17
$1,110
▲ 0.12%
Tue 08-18
$1,110
▲ 0.06%
Wed 08-19
$1,110
▼ 0.03%
Thu 08-20
$1,111
▲ 0.06%

Net 7-day: ▲ 0.39% from the last actual close ($1,106, 08-11).

Scenario analysis
ScenarioProbability7-day endpointKey driver
base40%$1,121 (+1.31%)Crude oil support balances seasonal stock build; range-bound with mild upside.
bull35%$1,149 (+3.86%)Sustained crude oil rally and intensifying El Niño fears trigger speculative buying.
bear25%$1,072 (-3.06%)Long liquidation in vegetable oils and better-than-expected production/stock build data.
Top 10 reasons for this outlook
  1. 1▲Brent Crude Surge — Brent jumped +12.7% in 7d to $89.5/bbl, improving biodiesel blending economics and CPO's relative value as a feedstock (POGO spread likely supportive). This is the strongest near-term bullish signal (z-score +1.07).
  2. 2▲BOPO Spread — Wide palm–soyoil discount of $475/MT (monthly average) continues to incentivize demand switching toward palm, providing a floor under prices.
  3. 3▲El Niño Anticipation — Developing El Niño (ONI +1.4°C) raises expectations of future yield declines in SE Asia, prompting speculative buying despite current ample stocks. Headline: 'Probability of a strong El Niño surges' (Aug 6).
  4. 4▼Seasonal Stock Build — MPOB July data showed stocks up 7.2% MoM to a comfortable 1.43M tonnes, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.5% (bearish). Seasonal path suggests further build in August (+11.2% historically), though impact may be priced in.
  5. 5▼Weak Indonesian Rupiah — USD/IDR at 17,797 encourages aggressive Indonesian export selling, increasing global supply. No immediate policy curb observed; a weaker rupiah is regionally bearish for CPO.
  6. 6▼Crowded Long Positioning — CFTC soybean oil net long at 80,681 contracts (80th percentile) declined by 29k last week but remains elevated, representing a vulnerability to long liquidation if sentiment shifts.
  7. 7▲Technical Support — Golden cross (5/20 SMA) and positive MACD histogram signal short-term upward momentum, though RSI is neutral and price near upper Bollinger band ($1116) may limit gains.
  8. 8▪Low Volatility — Realized volatility is low (z -1.17, 11th percentile), suggesting consolidation; a breakout could occur but range-bound action is more likely near term.
  9. 9▼Indonesia Export Policy — Export reference price from June ($1,030/MT) is outdated; a rising reference price would increase levy/duty costs, potentially slowing exports, but weak rupiah more than offsets this near term.
  10. 10▪Demand Calendar — Diwali buying is still 39 days away from its typical opening window; no immediate festival-demand boost yet.
News scanned (5)

7-day outlook: an AI reading of live market signals, shrunk toward the last traded price by the weight below — fundamentals (MPOB stocks, production, exports, stocks-to-use), technicals (RSI, MACD, Bollinger), Indonesia policy (Kemendag levy, mandates), substitute oils (BOPO spread), climate, weather, currencies, energy, and news. Current blend: 30% AI / 70% no-change baseline (adaptive, based on rolling accuracy). Refreshed hourly. An estimate, not a quote.

Experimental estimate — not a quote, not a guarantee, not investment advice. This 7-day outlook is generated hourly from recent price statistics, seasonality, the El Niño/La Niña state, live news headlines, and AI analysis of palm-oil market drivers. Actual prices will differ. Do your own due diligence before trading.

Not comparable to the 30-day range. The 30-day range published alongside this outlook is a different model measuring a different thing over a different horizon. Neither one’s accuracy implies anything about the other’s, and their numbers should never be read as rivals — this outlook publishes a path, the range deliberately publishes no path at all.

The next 30 days: a range, not a forecast

Where the Malaysian CPO price has an 80% historical chance of sitting by 10 September 2026, measured from every 30-day move since 27 December 2023. We do not publish a target price at this horizon; the note at the foot of this panel explains why.

$1,037-6.2%today $1,106$1,204+8.8%

Anchored on the 11 August 2026 close. Roughly one month in five should finish outside this range — that is what an 80% range means, not a failure of it.

Historical windows used
607
Range width
+16.0%
Times it has contained the price
not yet scored

The first 30-day window has not closed yet, so there is nothing honest to report on accuracy. This figure will appear once it does, and it will be published whether it flatters us or not — the same way we publish the 7-day forecast’s scorecard.

Seasonally, this is the softer part of the Malaysian calendar — output typically peaks between August and October, which has historically leaned prices down rather than up. The tilt is a background condition, not a forecast, and it is regularly overwhelmed by policy and energy news.

How this is calculated, and why there is no predicted price

An 80% range for the Malaysian CPO price 30 calendar days from the 2026-08-11 close, read directly off the distribution of every 30-day move since 2023-12-27 (607 overlapping windows, roughly 29 independent). This is deliberately NOT a price prediction: at this horizon we measured three separate models — a ridge regression, a seasonal-plus-fundamentals model and a nearest-analogue model — and every one of them performed worse than simply quoting today's price, so we do not publish a target or a direction. The midpoint is the historical median move, not a forecast. Roughly one month in five should close outside this range; if that stops being true, our published coverage figure will say so.

This is not comparable to the 7-day forecast on this page.They are different models measuring different things over different horizons, and neither one’s accuracy implies anything about the other’s. The 7-day outlook publishes a path; this publishes a range precisely because a path was not supportable at 30 days.

Sources: World Bank historical benchmark (CC BY 4.0) and MPOB Malaysia daily data. EUR/GBP/MYR views converted at daily exchange rates. Full data credits.

Indonesian crude palm oil prices

Official Kemendag monthly reference data is retained as the anchor, while POE models an indicative daily line from Malaysia MPOB data and reference ratios.

AI price outlook · experimentalgenerated Aug 12, 2026 · AI market model

↻ Updates every hour as new market data and news become available.

CPO is expected to trade with a mild upward bias over the next 7 days, supported by a recent surge in Brent crude oil boosting biodiesel economics, a wide palm-soyoil discount favoring demand switching, and emerging El Niño concerns. However, seasonal production peaks and stock build in Malaysia, along with a weak Indonesian rupiah encouraging exports, cap upside. Technicals show a short-term uptrend but momentum is weak. The market consolidates near the upper end of its recent range. Published path: +0.4% over 7 sessions.

Wed 08-12
$1,007
▲ 0.06%
Thu 08-13
$1,008
▲ 0.09%
Fri 08-14
$1,008
▲ 0.03%
Mon 08-17
$1,010
▲ 0.12%
Tue 08-18
$1,010
▲ 0.06%
Wed 08-19
$1,010
▼ 0.03%
Thu 08-20
$1,011
▲ 0.06%

Net 7-day: ▲ 0.39% from the last actual close ($1,007, 08-11).

Scenario analysis
ScenarioProbability7-day endpointKey driver
base40%$1,020 (+1.31%)Crude oil support balances seasonal stock build; range-bound with mild upside.
bull35%$1,045 (+3.86%)Sustained crude oil rally and intensifying El Niño fears trigger speculative buying.
bear25%$976 (-3.06%)Long liquidation in vegetable oils and better-than-expected production/stock build data.
Top 10 reasons for this outlook
  1. 1▲Brent Crude Surge — Brent jumped +12.7% in 7d to $89.5/bbl, improving biodiesel blending economics and CPO's relative value as a feedstock (POGO spread likely supportive). This is the strongest near-term bullish signal (z-score +1.07).
  2. 2▲BOPO Spread — Wide palm–soyoil discount of $475/MT (monthly average) continues to incentivize demand switching toward palm, providing a floor under prices.
  3. 3▲El Niño Anticipation — Developing El Niño (ONI +1.4°C) raises expectations of future yield declines in SE Asia, prompting speculative buying despite current ample stocks. Headline: 'Probability of a strong El Niño surges' (Aug 6).
  4. 4▼Seasonal Stock Build — MPOB July data showed stocks up 7.2% MoM to a comfortable 1.43M tonnes, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.5% (bearish). Seasonal path suggests further build in August (+11.2% historically), though impact may be priced in.
  5. 5▼Weak Indonesian Rupiah — USD/IDR at 17,797 encourages aggressive Indonesian export selling, increasing global supply. No immediate policy curb observed; a weaker rupiah is regionally bearish for CPO.
  6. 6▼Crowded Long Positioning — CFTC soybean oil net long at 80,681 contracts (80th percentile) declined by 29k last week but remains elevated, representing a vulnerability to long liquidation if sentiment shifts.
  7. 7▲Technical Support — Golden cross (5/20 SMA) and positive MACD histogram signal short-term upward momentum, though RSI is neutral and price near upper Bollinger band ($1116) may limit gains.
  8. 8▪Low Volatility — Realized volatility is low (z -1.17, 11th percentile), suggesting consolidation; a breakout could occur but range-bound action is more likely near term.
  9. 9▼Indonesia Export Policy — Export reference price from June ($1,030/MT) is outdated; a rising reference price would increase levy/duty costs, potentially slowing exports, but weak rupiah more than offsets this near term.
  10. 10▪Demand Calendar — Diwali buying is still 39 days away from its typical opening window; no immediate festival-demand boost yet.
News scanned (5)

7-day outlook: an AI reading of live market signals, shrunk toward the last traded price by the weight below — fundamentals (MPOB stocks, production, exports, stocks-to-use), technicals (RSI, MACD, Bollinger), Indonesia policy (Kemendag levy, mandates), substitute oils (BOPO spread), climate, weather, currencies, energy, and news. Current blend: 30% AI / 70% no-change baseline (adaptive, based on rolling accuracy). Refreshed hourly. An estimate, not a quote. DERIVED LINE: this is the Malaysian outlook rescaled by the ratio of the Kemendag Indonesian reference price (2026-06-01) to the Malaysian close on that date. It cannot diverge from the Malaysian path, and it does not model Indonesia-specific supply, demand or policy. Treat it as an indicative translation, not an independent Indonesian forecast.

Experimental estimate — not a quote, not a guarantee, not investment advice. This 7-day outlook is generated hourly from recent price statistics, seasonality, the El Niño/La Niña state, live news headlines, and AI analysis of palm-oil market drivers. Actual prices will differ. Do your own due diligence before trading.

Not comparable to the 30-day range. The 30-day range published alongside this outlook is a different model measuring a different thing over a different horizon. Neither one’s accuracy implies anything about the other’s, and their numbers should never be read as rivals — this outlook publishes a path, the range deliberately publishes no path at all.

Indicative line derived from official Malaysian (MPOB) and Indonesian (Kemendag) reference data. EUR/GBP/IDR views converted at daily exchange rates, not separate local-market prices. Full data credits.

Global crude palm oil benchmark

World Bank global CPO reference index in USD/tonne, with currency-converted views.

Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) USD/MT global benchmark. Full data credits.

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