अस्मिन् जालस्थले पण्यटीका, पूर्वानुमानानि वार्ताश्च आङ्ग्लभाषायां प्रकाश्यन्ते। एतत् पृष्ठम् आङ्ग्लभाषायां पठतु

Data, statistics and AI-powered insights

तालतेल-पण्यपीठम्

Live crude palm oil benchmarks, short-term outlook, market signals and sourcing links for buyers, traders and suppliers.

Malaysia CPO

flat

MYR 4,520/MT

Aug 13, 2026

66th pctl of 52-wk range

Indonesia CPO

+0.14%

$1,006/MT

Aug 13, 2026 modeled

Levy: $128.69/MT

Global benchmark

-0.27%

$1,101/MT

Jul 2026

World Bank monthly

7-day outlook

watch

Neutral

Move: flat

38% dir. accuracy (30d)

Brent crude

-17.09%

$87.3/bbl

Aug 14, 2026

30d: -17.09%

Refining margin

healthy

$184/MT

Olein – CPO spread

Healthy margins

MPOB, Kemendag, World Bank, FX and POE model referencesMalaysia priceAug 13, 2026Indonesia modelAug 13, 2026MPOB monthlyJul 01, 2026BrentAug 14, 2026WeatherAug 14, 2026ForecastAug 14, 2026

Malaysia CPO trend

Full chart

One-year market line with the latest POE 7-day outlook overlaid when available.

RSI-14: 51MACD: bullishSMA 5/20: golden cross

POE सप्तदिवसीयमूल्यदृष्टिः

Fri 08-14
$1,106
0.01%
Mon 08-17
$1,106
0.01%
Tue 08-18
$1,106
0.01%
Wed 08-19
$1,106
0.01%
Thu 08-20
$1,106
0.00%
Fri 08-21
$1,106
0.01%
Mon 08-24
$1,106
0.01%

Net 7-day: 0.05% from the last actual close ($1,106, 08-13).

12% model view, 88% last traded price held flat — the model is weighted by its own measured accuracy.

Cross-market pulse

Open dashboards

The live forces outside the price chart that can shift palm oil supply and demand.

Operational insights

Near-term signals remain mixed

Mixed
Buyer contextStaggered pricing dates and a consistent landed-cost benchmark provide useful comparison context.
Supplier contextCurrent offers and transparent price, freight and policy assumptions remain important context.
Signals to monitorWeather, Policy, Exports are the main signals to monitor as conditions evolve.
Dates to watchPeak production season (Jul–Oct) — highest output, typically bearish pressure

Market interpretation only. Users should make their own commercial decisions.

Trade Tools & Calculators

Live market spreads and practical calculators for palm oil trade.

FFB CalculatorSpec ValidatorTax & Levy Calculator
BOPO Spread$477/MT

$477/MT

CPO $1104 vs Soy $1581 (2026-06-01)

Wide — strongly supports palm demand

Open substitutes dashboard →
Brent Crude-17.1% 30d

$87.32/bbl

Aug 14, 2026

Softer crude reduces energy-led support for palm

Open energy desk →

Signal to shipment

Turn the market view into a sourcing decision

Move from the right palm product to a comparable landed cost and then a supplier-ready requirement without losing the market context above.

Up to date — Malaysia (MPOB) last updated Aug 13, 2026. Showing the latest MPOB price. Each trading day's price is published in the afternoon, Malaysia time.

मलयदेशीयस्य आर्द्रतालतेलस्य मूल्यानि

Historical World Bank benchmark data is combined with MPOB Malaysia data, FX references and POE model projections for the current market view.

Mostly last close · 12% AI · experimentalgenerated Aug 14, 2026 · AI market model

This number is 12% model view and 88% the last traded price held flat. The model is weighted by its own measured accuracy, so when it scores worse than doing nothing its share falls.

↻ Refreshed through the day as new prices and headlines arrive.

CPO near-term rangebound with mild upside bias: wide BOPO spread and short-term technicals support, but peak season output/stocks build and crowded long positioning cap gains. Missing key palm-specific data widens uncertainty. Published path: +0.0% over 7 sessions.

Fri 08-14
$1,106
0.01%
Mon 08-17
$1,106
0.01%
Tue 08-18
$1,106
0.01%
Wed 08-19
$1,106
0.01%
Thu 08-20
$1,106
0.00%
Fri 08-21
$1,106
0.01%
Mon 08-24
$1,106
0.01%

Net 7-day: 0.05% from the last actual close ($1,106, 08-13).

Scenario analysis
ScenarioProbability7-day endpointKey driver
base50%$1,110 (+0.40%)Rangebound technical drift with wide BOPO support offset by ample MPOB stocks and seasonal output.
bull25%$1,125 (+1.71%)Stronger crude and Black Sea shipping disruptions lift veg-oil complex; wide BOPO demand switching accelerates.
bear25%$1,087 (-1.69%)Long liquidation from crowded soyoil net longs, peak-season stock build and cheap Ukrainian/Russian oilseeds pressure palm.
Top 10 reasons for this outlook
  1. 1MPOB July stocks buildClosing stocks 1.429m tonnes +7.2% MoM, stocks-to-use 12.5% (>12% ample) bearish; data is 43 days old, likely priced but backdrop remains heavy.
  2. 2Peak production seasonMalaysia seasonal path production +7.0% one month ahead; peak Jul–Oct output and stocks +11.2% seasonal path weigh near-term.
  3. 3Wide BOPO spreadSoybean oil $1,581/MT vs palm $1,106, spread $475; palm heavily discounted, demand-switching support, but soyoil is monthly average, slow-moving.
  4. 4Technical momentumRSI 51, MACD histogram positive, 5/20 SMA golden cross, price above SMA-5/20/50; mild upward bias but not overbought.
  5. 5Indonesia export policy burdenHigh levy + duty total may curb Indonesian exports, potentially supporting Malaysian CPO; reference price stale, so no recent levy change inferred.
  6. 6El Niño ONI +1.4°CDeveloping El Niño creates lagged 6-12 month yield-cut anticipation; bullish bias, not day-to-day.
  7. 7India edible oil demand headlinesSEA reports July imports at 10-month high; Diwali in 86 days, buying window opens in ~37 days, but conflicting report of 8% decline tempers signal.
  8. 8Black Sea shipping/energyBrent $87.4 (-0.3% 7d) but Russia-Ukraine export-route attacks raise shipping costs and risk premium, supportive for veg oils.
  9. 9Speculative positioning crowdedCFTC soyoil managed-money net long +80,681 (80th percentile) but fell 29,174 w/w; crowded long vulnerable to liquidation, can spill to palm complex.
  10. 10Cheap Black Sea oilseeds supplyNews of expected sharp seasonal increase in rapeseed/sunflower from Ukraine/Russia pressures veg-oil complex.

7-day outlook: an AI reading of live market signals, shrunk toward the last traded price by the weight below — fundamentals (MPOB stocks, production, exports, stocks-to-use), technicals (RSI, MACD, Bollinger), Indonesia policy (Kemendag levy, mandates), substitute oils (BOPO spread), climate, weather, currencies, energy, and news. Current blend: 12% AI / 88% no-change baseline (calibration slope 0.25 fitted on 12 scored anchors, shrunk toward no-change for sample size). Refreshed every 6 hours. An estimate, not a quote.

Experimental estimate — not a quote, not a guarantee, not investment advice. This 7-day outlook is regenerated every 6 hours from recent price statistics, seasonality, the El Niño/La Niña state, live news headlines, and AI analysis of palm-oil market drivers. Actual prices will differ. Do your own due diligence before trading.

Not comparable to the 30-day range. The 30-day range published alongside this outlook is a different model measuring a different thing over a different horizon. Neither one’s accuracy implies anything about the other’s, and their numbers should never be read as rivals — this outlook publishes a path, the range deliberately publishes no path at all.

The next 30 days: a range, not a forecast

Where the Malaysian CPO price has an 80% historical chance of sitting by 12 September 2026, measured from every 30-day move since 27 December 2023. We do not publish a target price at this horizon; the note at the foot of this panel explains why.

$1,037-6.2%today $1,106$1,203+8.8%

Anchored on the 13 August 2026 close. Roughly one month in five should finish outside this range — that is what an 80% range means, not a failure of it.

Historical windows used
609
Range width
+16.0%
Times it has contained the price
not yet scored

The first 30-day window has not closed yet, so there is nothing honest to report on accuracy. This figure will appear once it does, and it will be published whether it flatters us or not — the same way we publish the 7-day forecast’s scorecard.

Seasonally, this is the softer part of the Malaysian calendar — output typically peaks between August and October, which has historically leaned prices down rather than up. The tilt is a background condition, not a forecast, and it is regularly overwhelmed by policy and energy news.

How this is calculated, and why there is no predicted price

An 80% range for the Malaysian CPO price 30 calendar days from the 2026-08-13 close, read directly off the distribution of every 30-day move since 2023-12-27 (609 overlapping windows, roughly 29 independent). This is deliberately NOT a price prediction: at this horizon we measured three separate models — a ridge regression, a seasonal-plus-fundamentals model and a nearest-analogue model — and every one of them performed worse than simply quoting today's price, so we do not publish a target or a direction. The midpoint is the historical median move, not a forecast. Roughly one month in five should close outside this range; if that stops being true, our published coverage figure will say so.

This is not comparable to the 7-day forecast on this page.They are different models measuring different things over different horizons, and neither one’s accuracy implies anything about the other’s. The 7-day outlook publishes a path; this publishes a range precisely because a path was not supportable at 30 days.

Sources: World Bank historical benchmark (CC BY 4.0) and MPOB Malaysia daily data. EUR/GBP/MYR views converted at daily exchange rates. Full data credits.

Indonesian crude palm oil prices

Official Kemendag monthly reference data is retained as the anchor, while POE models an indicative daily line from Malaysia MPOB data and reference ratios.

Mostly last close · 12% AI · experimentalgenerated Aug 14, 2026 · AI market model

This number is 12% model view and 88% the last traded price held flat. The model is weighted by its own measured accuracy, so when it scores worse than doing nothing its share falls.

↻ Refreshed through the day as new prices and headlines arrive.

CPO near-term rangebound with mild upside bias: wide BOPO spread and short-term technicals support, but peak season output/stocks build and crowded long positioning cap gains. Missing key palm-specific data widens uncertainty. Published path: +0.0% over 7 sessions.

Fri 08-14
$1,006
0.01%
Mon 08-17
$1,006
0.01%
Tue 08-18
$1,006
0.00%
Wed 08-19
$1,006
0.01%
Thu 08-20
$1,006
0.00%
Fri 08-21
$1,007
0.01%
Mon 08-24
$1,007
0.00%

Net 7-day: 0.05% from the last actual close ($1,006, 08-13).

Scenario analysis
ScenarioProbability7-day endpointKey driver
base50%$1,010 (+0.40%)Rangebound technical drift with wide BOPO support offset by ample MPOB stocks and seasonal output.
bull25%$1,023 (+1.71%)Stronger crude and Black Sea shipping disruptions lift veg-oil complex; wide BOPO demand switching accelerates.
bear25%$989 (-1.69%)Long liquidation from crowded soyoil net longs, peak-season stock build and cheap Ukrainian/Russian oilseeds pressure palm.
Top 10 reasons for this outlook
  1. 1MPOB July stocks buildClosing stocks 1.429m tonnes +7.2% MoM, stocks-to-use 12.5% (>12% ample) bearish; data is 43 days old, likely priced but backdrop remains heavy.
  2. 2Peak production seasonMalaysia seasonal path production +7.0% one month ahead; peak Jul–Oct output and stocks +11.2% seasonal path weigh near-term.
  3. 3Wide BOPO spreadSoybean oil $1,581/MT vs palm $1,106, spread $475; palm heavily discounted, demand-switching support, but soyoil is monthly average, slow-moving.
  4. 4Technical momentumRSI 51, MACD histogram positive, 5/20 SMA golden cross, price above SMA-5/20/50; mild upward bias but not overbought.
  5. 5Indonesia export policy burdenHigh levy + duty total may curb Indonesian exports, potentially supporting Malaysian CPO; reference price stale, so no recent levy change inferred.
  6. 6El Niño ONI +1.4°CDeveloping El Niño creates lagged 6-12 month yield-cut anticipation; bullish bias, not day-to-day.
  7. 7India edible oil demand headlinesSEA reports July imports at 10-month high; Diwali in 86 days, buying window opens in ~37 days, but conflicting report of 8% decline tempers signal.
  8. 8Black Sea shipping/energyBrent $87.4 (-0.3% 7d) but Russia-Ukraine export-route attacks raise shipping costs and risk premium, supportive for veg oils.
  9. 9Speculative positioning crowdedCFTC soyoil managed-money net long +80,681 (80th percentile) but fell 29,174 w/w; crowded long vulnerable to liquidation, can spill to palm complex.
  10. 10Cheap Black Sea oilseeds supplyNews of expected sharp seasonal increase in rapeseed/sunflower from Ukraine/Russia pressures veg-oil complex.

7-day outlook: an AI reading of live market signals, shrunk toward the last traded price by the weight below — fundamentals (MPOB stocks, production, exports, stocks-to-use), technicals (RSI, MACD, Bollinger), Indonesia policy (Kemendag levy, mandates), substitute oils (BOPO spread), climate, weather, currencies, energy, and news. Current blend: 12% AI / 88% no-change baseline (calibration slope 0.25 fitted on 12 scored anchors, shrunk toward no-change for sample size). Refreshed every 6 hours. An estimate, not a quote. DERIVED LINE: this is the Malaysian outlook rescaled by the ratio of the Kemendag Indonesian reference price (2026-06-01) to the Malaysian close on that date. It cannot diverge from the Malaysian path, and it does not model Indonesia-specific supply, demand or policy. Treat it as an indicative translation, not an independent Indonesian forecast.

Experimental estimate — not a quote, not a guarantee, not investment advice. This 7-day outlook is regenerated every 6 hours from recent price statistics, seasonality, the El Niño/La Niña state, live news headlines, and AI analysis of palm-oil market drivers. Actual prices will differ. Do your own due diligence before trading.

Not comparable to the 30-day range. The 30-day range published alongside this outlook is a different model measuring a different thing over a different horizon. Neither one’s accuracy implies anything about the other’s, and their numbers should never be read as rivals — this outlook publishes a path, the range deliberately publishes no path at all.

Indicative line derived from official Malaysian (MPOB) and Indonesian (Kemendag) reference data. EUR/GBP/IDR views converted at daily exchange rates, not separate local-market prices. Full data credits.

Global crude palm oil benchmark

World Bank global CPO reference index in USD/tonne, with currency-converted views.

Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) USD/MT global benchmark. Full data credits.

Turn the market view into a firm offer

Share the product, destination, volume and delivery window. The quote desk will route the requirement to suitable suppliers and refineries.

Request supplier quote