Malaysia CPO
flatMYR 4,520/MT
Aug 13, 2026
66th pctl of 52-wk range
अस्मिन् जालस्थले पण्यटीका, पूर्वानुमानानि वार्ताश्च आङ्ग्लभाषायां प्रकाश्यन्ते। एतत् पृष्ठम् आङ्ग्लभाषायां पठतु
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Live crude palm oil benchmarks, short-term outlook, market signals and sourcing links for buyers, traders and suppliers.
Malaysia CPO
flatMYR 4,520/MT
Aug 13, 2026
66th pctl of 52-wk range
Indonesia CPO
+0.14%$1,006/MT
Aug 13, 2026 modeled
Levy: $128.69/MT
Global benchmark
-0.27%$1,101/MT
Jul 2026
World Bank monthly
7-day outlook
watchNeutral
Move: flat
38% dir. accuracy (30d)
Brent crude
-17.09%$87.3/bbl
Aug 14, 2026
30d: -17.09%
Refining margin
healthy$184/MT
Olein – CPO spread
Healthy margins
One-year market line with the latest POE 7-day outlook overlaid when available.
Net 7-day: ▲ 0.05% from the last actual close ($1,106, 08-13).
12% model view, 88% last traded price held flat — the model is weighted by its own measured accuracy.
The live forces outside the price chart that can shift palm oil supply and demand.
Near-term signals remain mixed
Market interpretation only. Users should make their own commercial decisions.
Production, stocks, exports, imports and FFB price.
EnergyBrent & palm linkFollow crude prices and biodiesel demand support.
WeatherENSO & rainfallMonitor growing-belt rain and production risk.
PolicyBiodiesel mandatesTrack blend programs and policy-led palm demand.
Live market spreads and practical calculators for palm oil trade.
$477/MT
CPO $1104 vs Soy $1581 (2026-06-01)
Wide — strongly supports palm demand
Open substitutes dashboard →$87.32/bbl
Aug 14, 2026
Softer crude reduces energy-led support for palm
Open energy desk →Signal to shipment
Move from the right palm product to a comparable landed cost and then a supplier-ready requirement without losing the market context above.
Historical World Bank benchmark data is combined with MPOB Malaysia data, FX references and POE model projections for the current market view.
This number is 12% model view and 88% the last traded price held flat. The model is weighted by its own measured accuracy, so when it scores worse than doing nothing its share falls.
↻ Refreshed through the day as new prices and headlines arrive.
CPO near-term rangebound with mild upside bias: wide BOPO spread and short-term technicals support, but peak season output/stocks build and crowded long positioning cap gains. Missing key palm-specific data widens uncertainty. Published path: +0.0% over 7 sessions.
Net 7-day: ▲ 0.05% from the last actual close ($1,106, 08-13).
| Scenario | Probability | 7-day endpoint | Key driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| base | 50% | $1,110 (+0.40%) | Rangebound technical drift with wide BOPO support offset by ample MPOB stocks and seasonal output. |
| bull | 25% | $1,125 (+1.71%) | Stronger crude and Black Sea shipping disruptions lift veg-oil complex; wide BOPO demand switching accelerates. |
| bear | 25% | $1,087 (-1.69%) | Long liquidation from crowded soyoil net longs, peak-season stock build and cheap Ukrainian/Russian oilseeds pressure palm. |
7-day outlook: an AI reading of live market signals, shrunk toward the last traded price by the weight below — fundamentals (MPOB stocks, production, exports, stocks-to-use), technicals (RSI, MACD, Bollinger), Indonesia policy (Kemendag levy, mandates), substitute oils (BOPO spread), climate, weather, currencies, energy, and news. Current blend: 12% AI / 88% no-change baseline (calibration slope 0.25 fitted on 12 scored anchors, shrunk toward no-change for sample size). Refreshed every 6 hours. An estimate, not a quote.
Experimental estimate — not a quote, not a guarantee, not investment advice. This 7-day outlook is regenerated every 6 hours from recent price statistics, seasonality, the El Niño/La Niña state, live news headlines, and AI analysis of palm-oil market drivers. Actual prices will differ. Do your own due diligence before trading.
Not comparable to the 30-day range. The 30-day range published alongside this outlook is a different model measuring a different thing over a different horizon. Neither one’s accuracy implies anything about the other’s, and their numbers should never be read as rivals — this outlook publishes a path, the range deliberately publishes no path at all.
Where the Malaysian CPO price has an 80% historical chance of sitting by 12 September 2026, measured from every 30-day move since 27 December 2023. We do not publish a target price at this horizon; the note at the foot of this panel explains why.
The first 30-day window has not closed yet, so there is nothing honest to report on accuracy. This figure will appear once it does, and it will be published whether it flatters us or not — the same way we publish the 7-day forecast’s scorecard.
Seasonally, this is the softer part of the Malaysian calendar — output typically peaks between August and October, which has historically leaned prices down rather than up. The tilt is a background condition, not a forecast, and it is regularly overwhelmed by policy and energy news.
An 80% range for the Malaysian CPO price 30 calendar days from the 2026-08-13 close, read directly off the distribution of every 30-day move since 2023-12-27 (609 overlapping windows, roughly 29 independent). This is deliberately NOT a price prediction: at this horizon we measured three separate models — a ridge regression, a seasonal-plus-fundamentals model and a nearest-analogue model — and every one of them performed worse than simply quoting today's price, so we do not publish a target or a direction. The midpoint is the historical median move, not a forecast. Roughly one month in five should close outside this range; if that stops being true, our published coverage figure will say so.
This is not comparable to the 7-day forecast on this page.They are different models measuring different things over different horizons, and neither one’s accuracy implies anything about the other’s. The 7-day outlook publishes a path; this publishes a range precisely because a path was not supportable at 30 days.
Sources: World Bank historical benchmark (CC BY 4.0) and MPOB Malaysia daily data. EUR/GBP/MYR views converted at daily exchange rates. Full data credits.
Official Kemendag monthly reference data is retained as the anchor, while POE models an indicative daily line from Malaysia MPOB data and reference ratios.
This number is 12% model view and 88% the last traded price held flat. The model is weighted by its own measured accuracy, so when it scores worse than doing nothing its share falls.
↻ Refreshed through the day as new prices and headlines arrive.
CPO near-term rangebound with mild upside bias: wide BOPO spread and short-term technicals support, but peak season output/stocks build and crowded long positioning cap gains. Missing key palm-specific data widens uncertainty. Published path: +0.0% over 7 sessions.
Net 7-day: ▲ 0.05% from the last actual close ($1,006, 08-13).
| Scenario | Probability | 7-day endpoint | Key driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| base | 50% | $1,010 (+0.40%) | Rangebound technical drift with wide BOPO support offset by ample MPOB stocks and seasonal output. |
| bull | 25% | $1,023 (+1.71%) | Stronger crude and Black Sea shipping disruptions lift veg-oil complex; wide BOPO demand switching accelerates. |
| bear | 25% | $989 (-1.69%) | Long liquidation from crowded soyoil net longs, peak-season stock build and cheap Ukrainian/Russian oilseeds pressure palm. |
7-day outlook: an AI reading of live market signals, shrunk toward the last traded price by the weight below — fundamentals (MPOB stocks, production, exports, stocks-to-use), technicals (RSI, MACD, Bollinger), Indonesia policy (Kemendag levy, mandates), substitute oils (BOPO spread), climate, weather, currencies, energy, and news. Current blend: 12% AI / 88% no-change baseline (calibration slope 0.25 fitted on 12 scored anchors, shrunk toward no-change for sample size). Refreshed every 6 hours. An estimate, not a quote. DERIVED LINE: this is the Malaysian outlook rescaled by the ratio of the Kemendag Indonesian reference price (2026-06-01) to the Malaysian close on that date. It cannot diverge from the Malaysian path, and it does not model Indonesia-specific supply, demand or policy. Treat it as an indicative translation, not an independent Indonesian forecast.
Experimental estimate — not a quote, not a guarantee, not investment advice. This 7-day outlook is regenerated every 6 hours from recent price statistics, seasonality, the El Niño/La Niña state, live news headlines, and AI analysis of palm-oil market drivers. Actual prices will differ. Do your own due diligence before trading.
Not comparable to the 30-day range. The 30-day range published alongside this outlook is a different model measuring a different thing over a different horizon. Neither one’s accuracy implies anything about the other’s, and their numbers should never be read as rivals — this outlook publishes a path, the range deliberately publishes no path at all.
Indicative line derived from official Malaysian (MPOB) and Indonesian (Kemendag) reference data. EUR/GBP/IDR views converted at daily exchange rates, not separate local-market prices. Full data credits.
World Bank global CPO reference index in USD/tonne, with currency-converted views.
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) USD/MT global benchmark. Full data credits.
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