Substitute Oils Desk
The palm–soybean oil (BOPO) spread governs demand switching between the world's two largest vegetable oils. A wider spread (palm cheaper) supports palm demand; a narrow spread lets buyers switch to soy.
Current BOPO spread
$476
Wide — palm heavily discounted vs soybean oil; buyers likely to switch to palm (bullish for palm demand)
Soybean oil
$1581
USD/MT (FRED/IMF)
CPO
$1105
USD/MT (World Bank)
24-month avg spread
$92
Current is above average
Spread history
| Month | CPO ($/MT) | Soy oil ($/MT) | BOPO spread | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06 | $1105 | $1581 | $476 | Wide |
| 2026-05 | $1136 | $1616 | $480 | Wide |
| 2026-04 | $1146 | $1494 | $348 | Wide |
| 2026-03 | $1109 | $1420 | $311 | Wide |
| 2026-02 | $1039 | $1241 | $202 | Wide |
| 2026-01 | $1005 | $1111 | $106 | Normal |
| 2025-12 | $980 | $1080 | $100 | Normal |
| 2025-11 | $983 | $1099 | $116 | Normal |
| 2025-10 | $1038 | $1098 | $60 | Normal |
| 2025-09 | $1037 | $1108 | $71 | Normal |
| 2025-08 | $1026 | $1151 | $125 | Normal |
| 2025-07 | $976 | $1180 | $204 | Wide |
| 2025-06 | $935 | $1169 | $234 | Wide |
| 2025-05 | $908 | $1075 | $167 | Wide |
| 2025-04 | $994 | $1048 | $54 | Normal |
| 2025-03 | $1068 | $937 | $-131 | Narrow |
| 2025-02 | $1067 | $1010 | $-57 | Narrow |
| 2025-01 | $1070 | $967 | $-103 | Narrow |
| 2024-12 | $1190 | $903 | $-287 | Narrow |
| 2024-11 | $1169 | $981 | $-188 | Narrow |
| 2024-10 | $1077 | $956 | $-121 | Narrow |
| 2024-09 | $983 | $922 | $-61 | Narrow |
| 2024-08 | $933 | $913 | $-20 | Narrow |
| 2024-07 | $896 | $1023 | $127 | Normal |
Source: soybean oil — IMF Primary Commodity Prices via FRED (PSOILUSDM); palm oil — World Bank Pink Sheet (CC BY 4.0). Both are monthly global benchmarks in USD/MT. The BOPO spread = soybean oil minus CPO; a spread above ~$100/MT historically triggers demand switching toward palm. This is market context, not trading advice.
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