On 23 August 2026, Malaysian CPO benchmark sits around $1,144/MT, up 1.2% from the prior session, or RM4,626/MT. The World Bank global palm oil benchmark is about $1,101/MT and Indonesia's Kemendag reference price is about $997/MT. USD/MYR is about 4.04.
What is pushing CPO up
The strongest bullish driver is the BOPO spread. Soybean oil trades around $1,534 per tonne, a spread of roughly $389/MT over CPO, leaving palm heavily discounted. That discount encourages buyers to switch from soy to palm in food and oleochemical demand, supporting physical offtake and futures. Brent crude has risen 6.4% over the past seven days to about $94/bbl; higher crude improves biodiesel blending economics and the POGO relationship, making CPO more attractive as a feedstock for biodiesel. A developing El Niño with ONI at +1.4°C and dry conditions in Sarawak and Kalimantan threatens Indonesian and Malaysian yields on a 6–12 month lag, so buyers are adding risk premium now rather than waiting for actual output losses. Indonesia's export policy adds further support: the Kemendag reference price at $997/MT carries a levy of $125/MT plus a separate export duty of $148/MT, raising the cost of Indonesian shipments and shifting marginal demand toward Malaysian CPO. Recent news flow has also leaned bullish, including MPOC expectations for CPO above RM4,600 in September, tight supply commentary, and festival demand from India.
What is pushing CPO down
The most immediate bearish signal is technical: RSI at 73, above the upper Bollinger band, indicates the market is overbought and vulnerable to a pullback or consolidation within the next 3–5 days despite the bullish momentum. On the supply side, MPOB's July data showed closing stocks of 1,429,316 tonnes, up 7.2% month-on-month and 61% above the five-year average, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.5%. The data is about 50 days old and may not reflect current tightness, but the sheer build is bearish. Seasonal peak production also runs from July to October, and July production of 1,792,979 tonnes was up 9.4% month-on-month and about 4% above the five-year average, so near-term supply pressure remains. In the broader vegetable oil complex, CFTC managed money is net long soyoil by 98,237 contracts, a level 0.98 standard deviations above the two-year range; such a crowded long is vulnerable to long liquidation, which could spill over into palm. Finally, a weak rupiah at 17,666 per US dollar can encourage aggressive Indonesian export selling, which is regionally bearish for CPO, though extreme weakness could eventually trigger a policy reversal.
Where the balance lies
The driver set is exactly split: five bullish drivers and five bearish drivers. Our model outlook describes CPO as being in a bullish trend but stretched short-term: wide BOPO, Brent rally, El Niño and Indonesian policy support prices, while overbought RSI and peak season/large July stocks create pullback risk. The base case is a modest upward drift with consolidation, with a published path of +1.6% over the next seven sessions. That is not a decisive directional call; the market is genuinely balanced. For the bullish side to gain the upper hand, we would need confirmation of El Niño damage to palm yields, sustained Brent strength, or further widening of the BOPO spread. For the bearish side to take control, we would need the RSI to unwind with price falling below the upper band, August data showing another stock build, or soyoil long liquidation and a stronger rupiah. Until one of those shifts occurs, consolidation is the likeliest near-term path.