Malaysian CPO benchmark was about $1,106 per tonne, up 0.1% from the previous session. At the prevailing USD/MYR rate of 4.09, that is roughly RM4,520 per tonne. Brent crude also firmed about 0.2% to around $87 per barrel, keeping biodiesel blend economics in focus. The World Bank palm oil benchmark was about $1,101 per tonne, while Indonesia's Kemendag reference price was about $1,030 per tonne.
The July MPOB data showed Malaysian production rose 9.4% month on month to 1,792,979 tonnes, pushing closing stocks up 7.2% to 1,429,316 tonnes, the highest in five months. The stocks-to-use ratio reached 12.5%. Exports were a bright spot, up 14.5% month on month to 1,392,178 tonnes, while Malaysia's imports slumped 51.9% to 49,566 tonnes. The FFB reference was RM49.50, up 1.2% month on month. With peak production season underway and El Niño conditions (ONI +1.4) keeping Kalimantan relatively dry, the supply picture is currently ample but carries longer-term weather risk.
News flow adds mixed demand signals. One report suggests India's July edible oil imports hit the strongest monthly level in ten months on high demand, while another says India's edible oil imports fell 8% in July. That conflicting picture leaves near-term Indian palm buying uncertain. The Black Sea seasonal increase in cheap rapeseed and sunflower oil from Ukraine and Russia is also pressuring vegetable oil prices. Earlier in the week, Malaysian CPO futures had traded above RM4,750 per tonne on stronger crude oil prices, but the benchmark has since settled near RM4,520.
Our model outlook sees CPO caught between the bearish July stock build and ample peak-season supply on one side, and demand-switching support from a wide soybean oil-palm oil (BOPO) spread of $476 per tonne plus structurally bullish El Niño/B40 tailwinds on the other. Technicals are mildly supportive, with MACD positive and a golden cross, but speculative soyoil positioning is crowded long, raising liquidation risk. With no fresh cargo-surveyor export data and an outdated Indonesian reference price, the market is likely to trade range-bound with a slight downward bias over the next seven sessions; the published path is -0.0% over that horizon.
For buyers, the key watchpoints are the next cargo surveyor export figures, any update to Indonesia's reference price, clarification of India's July import numbers, and whether the El Niño dryness tightens supply later in the season.